The Cook Political Report National Overview:
On the other side of Capitol Hill, Democrats would need a 15-seat gain to win a majority in the House, which is currently divided at 232 Republicans and 203 Democrats. But while the numbers are different, the dynamics are much the same: there just aren't enough competitive open seats or vulnerable Republican incumbents on the table for Democrats to have a realistic shot at winning a majority.
Ultimately, as of this writing, we list a total of 28 seats as competitive --10 are held by Democrats and 18 are held by Republicans. For Democrats to pick up 15 seats - the number they need for control of the House - it would mean that they'd need to win almost every one of the vulnerable Republican seats (an almost 85 percent win rate), while not losing any of their own. Those are very long odds, even if the political winds are blowing favorably for Democrats.
While there may be more Republican retirements in the coming months and some of those might be in competitive districts, and while Democrats do have some time before many filing deadlines for candidates pass, it is unlikely that they will be able to put the 50 Republican seats in play that is thought to be necessary to have a reasonable chance of scoring a net gain of 15 seats. A more likely result is that Democrats end up with a net gain of between four and nine seats, roughly cutting the Republican margin in half in this midterm election campaign.
SO WHILE DEMS DROOL OVER HEATHER, PEARCE SITS PRETTY. RIGHT?
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